Rainfall relief on the horizon – but dry spells still demand careful financial thinking

By Andrew Heskin, Partner and ARA specialist

After weeks of unusually dry weather, UK farmers are welcoming news from the Met Office that wetter and cooler conditions are on their way.

From mid-April, a series of Atlantic rain systems and southern showers are expected to replenish soil moisture and support spring planting across much of the country.

This change in conditions brings much-needed optimism, particularly for arable farmers on heavier land who have been waiting for rain to activate fertilisers and encourage growth.

For livestock farmers, it offers reassurance around grazing and water supply as the new season begins.

However, recent dry spells have not been without consequence, particularly when it comes to farm cash flow, input planning, and yield projections.

In some areas, rainfall in March was almost non-existent, and fertiliser applications were either delayed or rendered less effective.

That disruption can have financial implications that should not be overlooked.

Using the break in weather to review plans

Periods of weather disruption, even short-lived, highlight just how important adaptable financial planning is in farming.

With forecasts improving, many farms will be restarting postponed tasks, but it is also an opportunity to look closely at how recent conditions have affected the business side of things.

We would encourage you to:

• Update budgets and cash flow forecasts to reflect revised input timings, pricing, and potential changes to harvest schedules.
• Reassess yield expectations in light of crop progress and upcoming weather conditions, adjusting revenue forecasts accordingly.
• Review input usage and fertiliser application strategies to ensure cost-efficiency and reduce waste.
• Factor in contingency for ongoing uncertainty, especially given how critical the coming months are for both crop and livestock production.

Thinking beyond this season

Short-term weather relief is welcome, but the challenges of climate variability are here to stay.

Many farmers are also weighing up longer-term investments in drought resilience, soil management, and environmental planning.

These are strategic decisions that can impact the profitability and sustainability of your farm for years to come, and careful financial modelling can make all the difference.

For support with budgeting, forecasting, and long-term planning, speak to our team today. We can help ensure your business is well prepared – whatever the weather may bring.